America is holding its first coast-to-coast elections since the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol in 2021. That revolt, an attempt to stop the certification of the last presidential election, cost several lives. A lot is at stake. … The need to keep the other party out of government, no matter […] Read more »
Final Forecast: The Senate And Most Of Its Key Races Are Toss-Ups
Just about no part of the 2022 midterms is more uncertain than the race for control of the U.S. Senate. The chamber is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans,1 but Democrats hold a precarious majority via the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. As a result, a one-seat gain […] Read more »
Final Forecast: Republicans Are Favored To Win The House
Election Day is finally upon us, and we’re “right back where we started from,” to borrow a phrase from Maxine Nightingale. FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast for the U.S. House, which is now final and no longer updating, estimates that Republicans have an 84-in-100 chance of taking control of the chamber. That’s […] Read more »
Pollsters sweat another Election Day reckoning
It wouldn’t be election eve if pollsters weren’t nervous. At a base level, the final surveys in the states that will determine which party controls the Senate next year fall into two camps. Polls from Republican-affiliated firms point to a GOP victory — and perhaps even a romp through some […] Read more »
Election Day 2022: What voters are thinking about
With the 2022 congressional election concluding Tuesday on Election Day, the Economist/YouGov poll is publishing its final numbers for the generic congressional ballot: 49% of likely voters — including people who are undecided but lean for either the Democratic or the Republican Party candidates — say they will vote for […] Read more »
Who Will Win the Battle for Congress? Four Scenarios.
Just about anything is still possible in this year’s midterm elections. Everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a fairly close race for the House to something like a Republican rout is well within the range of realistic possibilities on Tuesday. Why such a wide range? With so […] Read more »