These two candidates are best positioned to be this election’s ‘Iowa cyclone’

Want to know who will win the Iowa Democratic caucuses in five weeks? Don’t look to the current polls: Look for this election’s Iowa cyclone. An “Iowa cyclone” — the name is derived from the nickname of Iowa State University’s athletic teams — is a candidate who rises dramatically in […] Read more »

Biggest Political Moments Of 2019. Key Questions For 2020.

As the year comes to close, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team looks back on the most significant political moments of 2019 and previews the most pressing questions of 2020. They also discuss the Democrats’ debate over health care and the events that led the House to impeach President Trump. FiveThirtyEight Read more »

One Thing About the 2020 Election Is Already Clear

The 2020 presidential election remains very much up for grabs, but one thing already seems clear: It will end with about half of America triumphant, and the other half furious and fearful. Whichever side ultimately prevails in November, red and blue America are diverging along both demographic and geographic lines […] Read more »

Iowa swung fiercely to Trump. Will it swing back in 2020?

Few states have changed politically with the head-snapping speed of Iowa. In 2008, its voters propelled Barack Obama to the White House, an overwhelmingly white state validating the candidacy of the first black president. … By 2016, Donald Trump easily defeated Hillary Clinton in Iowa. … But now, as Democrats […] Read more »