With just a few hours to go before the voting starts in Iowa, it’s time for us to freeze the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast model! So here are our final estimates of each candidate’s chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates and their chances of winning Iowa ahead of tonight’s […] Read more »
The Iowa caucuses are very unpredictable — as is the aftermath
We have reached the end of the beginning of the 2020 primary process and the beginning of the end. … It’s worth pointing out that, in addition to a revised system in which the Iowa Democratic Party will literally release multiple data points that could allow multiple campaigns to claim […] Read more »
Iowa Road Trip: Do Reporters Know Anything?
What’s going to happen? The Uber driver, learning my occupation, wants to know. So, too, newsroom colleagues who cover beats other than politics. So, too, family members, who not unreasonably imagine that I must have gained some insight by leaving them to travel here. Two words I have learned to […] Read more »
What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
It’s finally time for the Iowa caucuses! In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast’s “Model Talk,” Nate Silver discusses the latest data and what unknowns could still lead to a surprise result. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Iowa Could Have Multiple Candidates Declare Victory. Let Us Show You How.
The Iowa caucuses could be messy. On Monday night, for the first time, there will be four sets of results, and there is no guarantee that the same candidate will win them all. Four different candidates could even declare victory, with the right combination of votes, turnout, geography and luck. […] Read more »
At the end of the invisible primary
… Today is the last day of the invisible primary. I recognize that definitions may vary on this, but what I mean is that today is the last day that the party, broadly speaking, is working on the 2020 presidential nomination without the direct input of Democratic voters and caucusgoers. […] Read more »