The nationwide protests over the killing of George Floyd will test two competing notions of how voters respond to crises that provoke both anger and grief. Could the demonstrations that have devolved into mayhem, looting and assault lead to victory for President Trump? Will they empower Republicans in the way […] Read more »
The Veepstakes: Handicapping Biden’s Choices
Key Points• Joe Biden should not be in a rush to name his vice presidential pick. Circumstances may change his list of contenders — and probably already have.• A predictable name leads our list, but a not-so predictable name is second.• Biden has many plausible options, but no perfect one. […] Read more »
Eroding support from white working-class women threatens Trump’s reelection
Although it has received less attention, Trump’s waning support among women with less than a college degree may prove just as important as his eroding support among older voters. As far back as the 2018 midterm elections, commentators began suggesting that support for Trump was dwindling among white non-college women. […] Read more »
In Changing U.S. Electorate, Race and Education Remain Stark Dividing Lines
… With the presidential election on the horizon, the U.S. electorate continues to be deeply divided by race and ethnicity, education, gender, age and religion. The Republican and Democratic coalitions, which bore at least some demographic similarities in past decades, have strikingly different profiles today. A new analysis by Pew […] Read more »
Live or virtual conventions? Texas parties may preview national split
Texas this week will preview the sharp divergence that may lie ahead as the Republican and Democratic parties grapple with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the 2020 election. The Texas Democratic Party has transformed its state convention this week into an entirely online event, complete with speeches from […] Read more »
Warren as Biden’s running mate makes no electoral sense
… Biden’s lead has stayed consistent, though the race is close enough that Trump could close the gap in the five months between now and the election. Biden may try to shore up his position through his vice presidential selection. A potential running mate who has gotten more attention recently […] Read more »