Key Points• President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half.• With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight to 10 points, there is a possibility that he could compete for some usually Republican states.• We are moving seven states from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.• Our […] Read more »
The Great Acceleration: How 2020’s Crises Are Bringing the Future Faster
Political prognostication, by Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. CONT. — pdf Read more »
There’s a big blue wave coming
There’s a wave coming. A blue wave like the one in 2018. Only bigger. Much bigger. Big enough to sweep away President Trump and the Republican majority in the Senate. … Every national poll taken over the past month shows Democrat Joe Biden leading Trump; the average margin is approaching […] Read more »
Ideological divides among partisans deepen: ABC News polling analysis
A long-term rise in political polarization is heading full steam into the 2020 election, with conservatism among Republicans accelerating to its highest level in ABC News/Washington Post polls back 22 years and liberalism among Democrats near its record, set last year. … This analysis was produced for ABC by Langer […] Read more »
Georgia. Ohio. Texas. Democrats Tell Biden to Go Big (He’s Being Cautious).
With President Trump’s poll numbers sliding in traditional battlegrounds as well as conservative-leaning states, and money pouring into Democratic campaigns, Joseph R. Biden Jr. is facing rising pressure to expand his ambitions, compete aggressively in more states and press his party’s advantage down the ballot. In a series of phone […] Read more »
Senate Democratic candidates are raising tons of money. That matters.
… Historically, candidates who raise more money increase their chances of winning significantly. This means the more money Democrats are raking in, the better chance they have at winning a Senate majority. Take a look at more than 100 Senate races for which there was polling from January to June […] Read more »