Americans have changed their behavior in ways that would have been unthinkable even a few months ago. Masks are an essential accessory. Social distancing is the norm. And even as states moved to reopen their economies in May and June, many Americans continued to think it was better for people […] Read more »
Almost 100 Days Out, Democrats Are Favored to Take Back the Senate
With just over 100 days until Election Day, the political climate appears dire for Republicans across the board. President Trump is the decided underdog against former Vice President Joe Biden in our Electoral College ratings and Democrats could end up expanding their House majority. That leaves the Senate as Republicans’ […] Read more »
House Rating Changes: Eight shifts, almost all benefiting Democrats
Key Points• Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing.• At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall.• There are eight rating changes this week: […] Read more »
Trump Is Determined to Split the Country in Two
New offensives against major cities from President Donald Trump and GOP governors are pushing at the central geographic fault line between the Republican and Democratic coalitions. On one front, Trump is taking his confrontational approach toward big cities to an ominous new level by deploying federal law-enforcement officials to Portland […] Read more »
The South Is Still Very Republican—But Southern Democrats Aren’t “Southern Democrats” Anymore
… In general, the change so far in the southern Democratic Party’s electoral strength has received too much attention and the change in its internal complexion has received too little. Old-style southern Democrats—the kind with rural constituencies, good-ol’-boy personas, and philosophical discomfort with the northern wing of the party on […] Read more »
New polls show Joe Biden is winning suburbanites by a historic margin
The new ABC News/Washington Post poll is the latest to show former Vice President Joe Biden on a roll. He leads President Donald Trump 55% to 40% among registered voters. (It’s a slightly tighter 54% to 44% among likely voters). The poll comes on top of other surveys last week […] Read more »