Trailing Joe Biden in polls, President Donald Trump is attacking mail-in voting as a potential source of illegal Democratic votes on a near-daily basis. But the biggest risk of a pandemic-induced crush of mail-in votes isn’t fraud, an extraordinarily rare occurrence in American elections. The real danger is a perfect […] Read more »
Trump is creating an untraditional partisan divide on vote by mail
The popularity of voting by mail has exploded during the coronavirus pandemic. … Yet over the past few months, President Donald Trump has crusaded to cast doubt on voting by mail. Many of those are false charges, including the idea that there is massive fraud, that have been debunked. Still, […] Read more »
Would You Go to a Movie Right Now? Republicans Say Yes. Few Others Do.
Democrats and Republicans are reacting very differently to the coronavirus pandemic. And the divide goes far beyond whether to wear a mask. A majority of Republicans say they would feel comfortable flying on an airplane, eating indoors in a restaurant or seeing a movie in a theater. Large majorities of […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s suburban horror show
Donald Trump says Joe Biden wants to abolish the suburbs. But polls show a different truth: The suburbs want to abolish Donald Trump. If current numbers hold, the Republican Party will suffer its worst defeat in the suburbs in decades — with implications reaching far beyond November. It was in […] Read more »
White Flight From Trump? What a Decisive Biden Win Could Look Like
Recent national polls show that Joe Biden’s commanding lead has eroded longstanding demographic divisions that have favored Republicans, endangering their hold on a tier of states where the Democratic Party usually has little chance to prevail in federal elections, even Republican strongholds like Kansas or Alaska. … Remarkably, Mr. Trump’s […] Read more »
No, the polls aren’t undersampling Republicans
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a clear advantage in the national polls. Perhaps not wanting to acknowledge Biden’s edge, some Republicans, including in President Donald Trump’s own circle, claim that the polls are oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans. Often, they point to the 2016 exit polls. An in-depth […] Read more »