Unlike partisans, who tend to stick with their side in good times and bad, independent voters are willing to criticize or support the party in power based on current events. They aren’t living in a movement; they are living in the moment. As such, when a president’s job approval ratings […] Read more »
Why A ‘Sister Souljah Moment’ Won’t Save Biden
Joe Biden needs a “Sister Souljah Moment.” At least, that’s according to the quickly congealing conventional wisdom in Washington. That is, Biden and Democrats are in dire danger of losing control of Congress next year, and the one thing that could save them would be by bashing someone to Biden’s […] Read more »
Local Economic and Political Effects of Trade Deals: Evidence from NAFTA
Why have white, less educated voters left the Democratic Party over the past few decades? Scholars have proposed ethnocentrism, social issues and deindustrialization as potential answers. We highlight the role played by the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In event-study analysis, we demonstrate that counties whose 1990 employment […] Read more »
Should Democrats stick to only saying popular things?
Should Democrats stick to rhetoric and positions that are popular in swing states such as Georgia and Wisconsin? Ultimately, I think the answer is “no,” but the question is worth exploring. Many in the party blamed the Democrats’ weaker-than-expected results in the 2020 elections on left-wing activists and politicians touting […] Read more »
The Biggest Victim in 2021 Redistricting So Far: Competition
Heading into Thanksgiving, new congressional maps have either passed or are awaiting signature in 20 states — almost half of the 44 states with two or more seats. And although Republicans are poised for modest mapping gains, the most dramatic trend is anti-competitive. … Overall, competitive seats are on track […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s Big Squeeze
… The Democrats had a plan to rescue their party and the country: Biden would steer clear of the faddish slogans and radical demands that had seized his party’s base and focus relentlessly on practical benefits desired by the working-class voters who had deserted Democrats for Donald Trump. … Eleven […] Read more »