A significant number of both Democrats and Republicans currently hope to see their parties find alternatives to President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the next presidential election, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. But very few have specific candidates in mind, underscoring how distant […] Read more »
Republicans may be divided over Trump, but that’s of little solace to Biden and the Democrats
Democrats got another harsh reminder this past week of what the November elections could bring, which is to say trouble. With inflation roaring at a pace not seen in 40 years, intraparty Democratic debates about mask mandates and President Biden’s weak approval ratings, the fundamentals for the midterm elections continue […] Read more »
Dems’ Problems Bigger Than Redistricting
A question I’m getting asked a lot these days is: “What does President Biden need to do to turn this midterm election around?” To many, it seems like a political version of a Rubik’s Cube, a puzzle ready and waiting to be solved with the right approach. Don’t be so […] Read more »
Ranking the States Demographically, from Most Republican-Friendly to Most Democratic-Friendly
Key Points• For all 50 states, we looked at 3 variables that are increasingly linked with partisan voting patterns: education level, race, and urbanization.• When the states are rank-ordered by their composite scores on these 3 measures, the Republican-voting states for the 2020 presidential election cluster on one end of […] Read more »
The fight isn’t over whether America will be a democracy, but what kind of democracy
I and others often say that the partisan conflict in the United States puts our democracy at risk. And it’s true. But that framing implies that the core conflict is about democracy — as if we have one side that supports fair elections while the other prefers dictatorship. But the […] Read more »
Hotline’s Senate Power Rankings
Democrats had a rough 2021, and entering 2022, things still look bleak. A president’s party typically loses seats in their first midterm election, and President Biden doesn’t look to be an exception to that rule at the moment, with his approval rating mired in the low 40s. While the House […] Read more »