Bernie Sanders needed to fundamentally change the trajectory of the Democratic primary race after decisive defeats last week on Super Tuesday. After Tuesday’s contests, even a fundamental shift might not be enough. Joe Biden’s victories in Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Idaho confirm that he has seized a commanding national advantage, […] Read more »
Democratic Voters Closing the Door on Sanders
Tuesday night’s Democratic presidential primary results were the equivalent of a diner motioning across the restaurant to a waiter and mouthing two words: “Check, please.” While a significant chunk of the party supports Bernie Sanders in his head-to-head matchup with Joe Biden, a considerably larger portion backs Biden. The size […] Read more »
March 10 Primary Review: From “Contested Convention!” to “Over Already?!?”
It wasn’t all that long ago that the prospect of a contested Democratic convention was every savvy Washingtonian’s favorite topic of conversation. … Of course, that all seems rather quaint now. Joe Biden’s remarkable resurgence, beginning with his modest second-place finish in the Nevada caucus and picking up rocket fuel […] Read more »
Joe Biden Is Poised to Deliver the Biggest Surprise of 2020: A Short, Orderly Primary
The state of our union is unsettled, chaotic, impossible to pin down. The state of the Democratic primary, improbably, is not. With a string of commanding victories on Tuesday — Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, probably any other “M” state that might have bothered with a primary this week — Joe Biden […] Read more »
Why Tonight’s Primary Results Are So Important for Bernie Sanders
The primary contests today could be the best and even last chance for Bernie Sanders to preserve his hope of winning the Democratic nomination. This might be his best chance for a simple reason: The states are relatively favorable for him, compared with the country over all. It might be […] Read more »
3 Ways The Next 2 Weeks Could Go: Even The Best Case Scenario For Sanders Doesn’t Look So Great
Our primary model is now extremely confident that former Vice President Joe Biden will win a majority of pledged delegates. … If that confidence seems misplaced — and keep in mind, our forecasts are usually more conservative than other statistical algorithms — it may be because Biden’s ascent has been […] Read more »