Times reporter Adam Nagourney analyzes key moments from the first Republican presidential debate on Thursday. New York Times Read more »
Luntz Focus Group Overwhelmingly Turned Off By Trump at GOP Debate
In a live post-debate “Kelly File,” Frank Luntz talked to a focus group of Republican voters. The group expressed their dissatisfaction with the performance of Donald Trump. Overall, Luntz noted that the majority of the group had a positive view of Trump going in, but that was not the case […] Read more »
These Social-Science Nuggets Can Make You a Smarter Debate-Watcher
… The debates will be solid political entertainment no matter what, but adding just a little bit of social science to the mix can help reveal hidden aspects and important moments that might otherwise slip by unnoticed. So here are three simple things you can do to be a more […] Read more »
There are only 497 things you need to know about tonight’s Republican debate
Ten of the “leading” Republican candidates gather Thursday night for the first presidential primary debate. Of course, they’re “leading” only if you ignore the sampling error in polls. But never mind. So, about the 497 things. I was kidding. There are only four: 1) Debates can move the polls. CONT. […] Read more »
Fox Failed Statistics in Explaining Its G.O.P. Debate Decision
Will Rick Perry miss the main Republican debate Thursday night because he’s unpopular or because he’s unlucky? This turns out to be a far more difficult question that you might realize, and it’s one that apparently eludes the Fox News decision desk. CONT. Justin Wolfers (U. of Michigan), New York […] Read more »
How Fox News determined who qualified for prime-time GOP debate
Based on an average of the five most recent national polls, the candidates invited to be on stage for the 9:00 P.M. ET debate will be: Donald Trump (23.4%), Jeb Bush (12.0%), Scott Walker (10.2%), Mike Huckabee (6.6%), Ben Carson (5.8%), Ted Cruz (5.4%), Marco Rubio (5.4%), Rand Paul (4.8%), […] Read more »