With the first full week of hearings for the House select committee’s investigation into the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol now complete, nearly 6 in 10 Americans believe former President Donald Trump should be charged with a crime for his role in the incident, a new ABC News/Ipsos […] Read more »
Gavin Newsom’s Case for a More Aggressive Democratic Party
On May 4, two days after Politico rocked Washington by revealing the draft of a Supreme Court decision to overturn the constitutional right to abortion, California Governor Gavin Newsom delivered remarks at a Los Angeles Planned Parenthood office—and triggered a small earthquake of his own. Newsom pledged that, however the […] Read more »
Biden approval rating at 39% amid economic fears; 47% ‘strongly disapprove’
President Joe Biden said Thursday Americans were “really, really down.” He’s right about that. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows the country in a funk and one that sets a problematic political landscape for Democrats in the November elections that are approaching fast. Only 39% of Americans approve of the […] Read more »
A Republican pollster’s advice on how to talk about the gun bill
… In the Senate Republican lunch on Tuesday, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) cited recent polling conducted for a nonprofit run by a former Cornyn aide to make the case for the gun package he’s currently negotiating. We chatted with Neil Newhouse, one of the Republican pollsters who conducted the survey, […] Read more »
What the Polls Can (And Can’t) Tell Us
For the last couple of years, I’ve stressed that when it comes to campaign polling, it’s more important to focus on the vote share each candidate is getting than it is to obsess about the margin that separates the two candidates. The fact that a candidate is ‘ahead’ of another […] Read more »
Will 2022 tell us about 2024?
While no one knows exactly how bad this year will be for Democrats, every serious analyst recognizes 2022 is unlikely to be good for my party. Whatever the precise outcome, too many will blithely assume that the 2022 results will yield significant insights into President Biden’s prospects in 2024. History […] Read more »