… Democrats have been gaining ground in their bid to hold on to the US Senate and House, and Trump likely has a lot to do with it – canceling out the normal midterm penalty with his own midterm penalty. Right now, the generic congressional ballot is basically even. If […] Read more »
Women Are So Fired Up to Vote, I’ve Never Seen Anything Like It
… For many Americans, confronting the loss of abortion rights was different from anticipating it. In my 28 years analyzing elections, I’ve never seen anything like what’s happened in the past two months in American politics: Women are registering to vote in numbers I’ve never witnessed. I’ve run out of […] Read more »
Abortion Could Define California’s Elections
Abortion rights dominated the message when the Democratic congressional candidate Jay Chen sent off a small group who had gathered to canvass for him here early on Sunday morning. “A right that we had all assumed we would have, the right of a woman to have control of her own […] Read more »
Independent Voters Now Tilting Toward Democrats in Midterm Elections, WSJ Poll Finds
Democrats are entering the homestretch before November’s election in better shape than earlier this year, boosted by gains among independent voters, improved views of President Biden and higher voting enthusiasm among abortion-rights supporters, a Wall Street Journal poll shows. Republicans have electoral fuel to tap into if they can keep […] Read more »
The shadow stalking Democrats’ improving numbers: Can polls be trusted?
Over the past two months, FiveThirtyEight’s average of congressional ballot polling has shifted from a two-point Republican advantage to a half-point Democratic one. Its average of approval polling for President Biden has gone from Biden being underwater by 17 points (that is, his “disapprove” percentage is 17 points higher than […] Read more »
Senate Rating Changes: Arizona, Pennsylvania to Leans Democratic
Key Points• We are moving the Senate races in Arizona and Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on account of candidate weaknesses for Republicans in both states and what appears to be a not-as-bleak environment for Democrats.• The overall race for the Senate remains a Toss-up, with 49 seats at […] Read more »