Democratic candidates across the country are aiming to make abortion a frontline issue in the upcoming midterms, but gun policies ranked higher as an immediate concern for voters, according to a POLITICO-Harvard survey released Thursday. The survey asked 1,815 registered voters to say which issues were “extremely important” in their […] Read more »
Two Months That Turned the 2022 Midterms on Their Head
With control of both the Senate and the House very clearly on the line, this election has become a contest about which party can more effectively frame this 2022 midterm election on terms favorable to themselves. The default scripting for midterms is as a referendum on the sitting president, particularly […] Read more »
Democrats don’t see the economy like everyone else right now
Despite job gains and signs of easing inflation, six out of 10 Americans think the nation’s economy is in a recession, according to the latest poll from the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist, and more than half think President Joe Biden has weakened the economy. As the country gears up […] Read more »
Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models
Key Points• A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate.• A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but by less than the model […] Read more »
The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections
Key Points• This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections.• The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the election’s national outcome.• The seats-in-trouble […] Read more »
Learning from the 1998 and 2002 midterms
The 1998 and 2002 elections remain the only times since 1932 that the president’s party has gained House seats in a midterm. … The midterm dynamic can be very strong, producing huge partisan waves that result in large House (and Senate) losses for the president’s party. This is especially true […] Read more »