Nobody should be surprised that evangelical voters are sticking with the GOP. I’ve been watching evangelical voting behavior since I worked for Paul Weyrich’s Free Congress Foundation in the 1980s, and I’ve come to believe that, in most cases (though certainly not all), white evangelicals get their religion from their […] Read more »
Sample Composition Effects in Alabama Senate Election Polling
The controversy surrounding Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate election seemed primed to create a differential partisan nonresponse bias phenomenon often seen in past election polling. As negative news increases about a candidate in an election, members of the public who share that candidate’s party or support the candidate become […] Read more »
Despite skeptical public, GOP pushing ahead on tax-cut plan
Republicans are pushing full steam ahead on their tax cut plan, despite polling that shows more Americans oppose rather than support the sweeping proposal to reduce corporate rates and some individual tax bills. In pushing so hard, Republicans are betting they can sell this plan to the skeptical public once […] Read more »
Sexual misconduct allegations don’t always affect voters’ decisions
Weeks after allegations of sexual harassment and assault rocked the entertainment industry, the issue is now being confronted in the political arena. Digging into the CBS News polling archives, we find that while the public may be bothered by allegations of sexual harassment or misconduct against a politician, it’s sometimes […] Read more »
The Big Blue Losers in the GOP Tax Plans
It’s difficult to say whether the tax legislation Republicans are driving through Congress qualifies as a revenue bill—or an enemies list. It isn’t unusual for tax legislation to reward a political party’s supporters, and the GOP bill emphatically upholds that tradition by funneling its tax savings primarily toward business and […] Read more »
Democrats also juggling politics of sexual predation
Democrats have been quick to support the “me too” chorus of women — and some men — who have stepped up to allege sexual misconduct and name names. But now “me too” stains the Democrats, too, putting them in an awkward place as they calibrate how forcefully to respond. CONT. […] Read more »