This past May, I wrote a piece positing that the generic Congressional vote averages from surveys taken roughly until Memorial Day of the year preceding an election are not reliable indicators of a party’s performance in that election. Seven months later – and now less than 11 months from Election […] Read more »
History suggests the GOP tax reform celebration will be short-lived
Bookmark that photo of Republican lawmakers gathering at the White House today to celebrate their first major legislative victory of the Trump era. If history is any guide, many of them may be on their way out this time next year. As others have documented, including Harry Enten at 538, […] Read more »
The Double-Edged Sword of a Party-Line Victory
President Trump and congressional Republicans have just taken the same leap of faith that Democrats did when they passed the Affordable Care Act. When then-President Obama and the Democratic House and Senate majorities muscled through the ACA in 2010, the bill represented a big policy victory, but an even bigger […] Read more »
Democrats’ 2018 advantage expands
Democrats’ already wide advantage over Republicans in a hypothetical Congressional matchup has grown, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. At the same time, enthusiasm about voting next year has increased among Democrats nationwide following an unexpected win in Alabama’s Senate special election and a strong showing in […] Read more »
What GOP misses about its tax bill
Republicans in Congress and the White House have fully embraced the bizarre belief that passing legislation people hate is the pathway to earning votes. “Forget whether people like the ACA repeal plan, just do it,“ GOP leaders exhorted, “Voters won’t care if they hate what you’ve done, as long as […] Read more »
Public sours on GOP tax plan as Democrats regain lead on economy
The tax plan that Republicans are soon expected to pass has grown more unpopular in the last two months, with nearly two-thirds of Americans believing it’s designed mostly to help corporations and the wealthy, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. In addition, the survey finds that Democrats […] Read more »