Last month it seemed that Democrats might ride a giant tsunami to control of the House and Senate. Now, some are wondering whether there’s a Democratic wave at all. … The question isn’t really whether Republican standing has improved recently. It has. The question is whether anyone should care: Is […] Read more »
Majority of viewers give Trump a thumbs-up for State of the Union speech
The majority of Americans who tuned in or followed news coverage of President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address Tuesday night thought that the president hit the right notes, according to the results of an NBC News/Survey Monkey poll released Thursday. CONT. Dartunorro Clark & Stephanie Perry, NBC News Read more »
The Districts That Will Determine the Next House Majority
We’ve previously described the Democrats’ odds of winning a House majority in November as roughly 50-50, and that’s where we remain. Democrats benefit from the usual presidential party midterm drag, President Trump’s lackluster approval ratings, and a flood of candidates. Republicans benefit from the overall House map and the presence […] Read more »
Party switching – the Case for Racial Resentment
… If racial animus has the power to draw those with a high propensity of racial resentment into the Republican tent, can it then function as a wedge-issue, potentially alienating traditionally Republican voters from Republican candidates? Tests of this hypothesis are difficult, mostly because Big-N-data on resentment that would permit […] Read more »
Trump Has Got Democrats Right Where He Wants Them
President Trump’s immigration proposal has put Democrats in a bind; they know it and he knows it. Trump’s immigration “framework” — first outlined on Jan. 25 — represents an unusually sophisticated strategy. He proposes to more than double the number of Dreamers granted a path to citizenship, a significant concession […] Read more »
The GOP’s big tax-cut gamble appears to be paying dividends
A month ago Republicans passed what was, according to some measures, the most unpopular bill in decades: their tax plan. Today, it’s looking more and more as if that was a risk well worth taking. A day after President Trump played up the tax cuts in his State of the […] Read more »