U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and Gov. Tom Wolf led their likely Republican opponents by wide margins in the first major independent poll of their election races this year. Casey, a Democrat, had the support of 43 percent of voters compared to 25 percent for Rep. Lou Barletta, R-11, Hazleton, according […] Read more »
Democrats may already be 35% of the way to a House majority
With the retirement announcement of Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Ryan Costello, there are now eight open seats currently held by Republicans in districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. And there’s a good chance the Democrats will win them all, bringing the party 35% closer to the 23 seats it needs […] Read more »
Suburban voters angry with Trump threaten GOP’s grip on House
… If Republicans want to hold onto the House, they will have to compete in communities that had little to do with the working-class regions that sent Trump to the White House in 2016: affluent, white-collar suburbs of Democratic cities. Many of the most competitive House seats this year are […] Read more »
To Reclaim the House, Democrats Need to Flip 24 G.O.P. Seats. 25 Are in Clinton Territory.
Democrats hope to ride a wave of liberal enthusiasm and anti-Trump sentiment to a House majority in the midterm elections in November. All 435 House seats are up for grabs, but only about 48 seats are considered competitive (rated tossup or leaning toward one party), based on an average of […] Read more »
America’s Warped Elections
Many Democratic voters and activists are giddy about their party’s chances of retaking the House in 2018. … But a big reality check is in order. Even the strongest blue wave may crash up against a powerful structural force in American politics: extreme gerrymandering. Pending court cases, including one scheduled […] Read more »
Why the March for Our Lives could win
Gun control is, broadly speaking, incredibly popular in America. Polling for many common gun control measures, including universal background checks, can top 75 percent — even among Republicans. So why can’t it get through Congress? The best explanation seems to be issue intensity. Essentially, lots of Americans support gun control, […] Read more »