Despite a wave of controversies, President Trump’s popularity seems to be rising ever so slightly, according to a couple of recent polls. The bump may be linked to the fact that more Americans seem to be crediting Trump for the nation’s healthy economy. And that has raised one of the […] Read more »
Census change will have a political impact. Question is: How much?
This week, the U.S. Census suddenly became a hot political topic in Washington – yes, you read that right, the U.S. Census. And now a partisan fight is brewing over the bureau’s crucial 2020 survey. It began on Tuesday when the Trump administration proposed a last-minute additional question to the […] Read more »
Emerging Democratic Party united on liberal policies but divided on how to win
A new Democratic Party is emerging in congressional primaries across the country, united over the most liberal policies in decades but sharply divided over which candidates to run against President Trump and Republicans in the midterms. The party taking shape will challenge the GOP with a distinct populist tilt, marking […] Read more »
CNN poll: Democrats’ edge dips to 6 points in midterm race for control of Congress
The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot has tightened to 6 percentage points, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds. The poll finds that 50% of registered voters say they prefer a Democrat in their congressional district, while 44% say they want a Republican. That’s a major shift […] Read more »
The House Exodus: How the historically high number of open seats affects the November calculus
In the roughly two and a half months since we last assessed an already-long list of House open seats this cycle — and even in the week since my colleague Geoffrey Skelley took a deep look at the pace of House retirements historically — the number of open House seats […] Read more »
The Seats/Votes Relationship and the Efficiency Gap: House Elections 1972-2016
Redistricting for the U.S. House of Representatives is not a unified process, as is the case for most national legislatures, but rather the result of the cumulative actions in the states that have more than one representative. Nevertheless, it is useful to look at the entire House to see how […] Read more »