Two early surveys show former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, holding a lead over Republican Rep. Marcia Blackburn in hypothetical ballot tests of this year’s Senate race. Those polls, along with kind words about Bredesen from retiring Tennessee GOP Sen. Bob Corker, have raised the contest’s profile and heightened […] Read more »
If Democrats Are Doing so Great, Why Don’t They Have a Bigger Lead on Generic Ballot?
Every day, it seems, another warning light goes off on the GOP’s dashboard, a blinking reminder of their ensuing troubles for 2018. There are a record number of GOP retirements — including that of House Speaker Ryan. Democratic challengers are outraising GOP incumbents. And, of course, there’s the most recent […] Read more »
What to Keep in Mind When Thinking About the Midterms
With less than 200 days until the midterm elections, Democrats are generally thought to have a slight advantage in the fight for control of the House. That doesn’t mean they are going to prevail. The polls could be wrong, as all should understand by now, and there’s more than enough […] Read more »
The Public, the Political System and American Democracy
At a time of growing stress on democracy around the world, Americans generally agree on democratic ideals and values that are important for the United States. But for the most part, they see the country falling well short in living up to these ideals, according to a new study of […] Read more »
Raising the Ceiling, but Not the Floor, on Potential Democratic House Gains
Rep.-elect Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8)’s victory in a special election Tuesday night fit into the pattern we’ve seen in other special elections this cycle. In a clearly Republican-leaning seat, Lesko won but ran significantly behind Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential performance. Trump won the district by 21 percentage points, whereas Lesko […] Read more »
Berkeley IGS Poll: Little-known Republican threatens to shake up U.S. Senate race in California
A new statewide poll suggests there’s another threat to state Sen. Kevin de León’s insurgent U.S. Senate bid: A little-known Republican pushing back against his “sanctuary state” law. James P. Bradley, running on an “America First” platform, is trailing the former California Senate leader by 1 point — a statistical […] Read more »