In April 2018, Bright Line Watch conducted its fifth expert survey, and its third public survey, on democracy in the United States. Between April 9 and 22, we surveyed an expert sample of 935 political science faculty at American universities and a nationally representative sample of 2,000 adults. Respondents in […] Read more »
Trump might be right — the GOP’s House majority is not all but doomed
Political prognosticators usually shake their head at President Donald Trump’s electoral analyses. He doesn’t tout all poll numbers, for example, and instead relies upon the rosiest figures from Rasmussen Reports. But when it comes to the 2018 House of Representatives elections, I think the President may have a point. According […] Read more »
Who’s On Second? CA Polling Is a Muddled Mess
Here’s what we know about the 2018 California races for governor and U.S. Senate: Democrats Gavin Newsom and Dianne Feinstein will come in first in the June preliminary vote. If past polling and logic prove reliable, Democrats Antonio Villaraigosa and Kevin de Leon will come in second in those races […] Read more »
Democrats were looking at suburban districts. Now they’re glancing toward rural ones too.
Last year, as a wave of special elections popped up, every smart Democrat wanted to focus on one seat. “Watch the special election for Tom Price’s seat in suburban Atlanta,” Rep. Sean Maloney (D-N.Y.) said in an interview in February 2017. … However, the more telling special elections might have […] Read more »
Trump’s Role in Midterm Elections Roils Republicans
President Trump is privately rejecting the growing consensus among Republican leaders that they may lose the House and possibly the Senate in November, leaving party officials and the president’s advisers nervous that he does not grasp the gravity of the threat they face in the midterm elections. Congressional and party […] Read more »
The Nevada Senate race shows that demographics are not destiny
There has been a belief among some Democrats that the combination of non-white voters being overwhelmingly Democratic and the fact that they are becoming a larger portion of the electorate means that Democrats may be heading toward some sort of electoral glory. This increase in diversity is a comfort to […] Read more »