Donald J. Trump’s rise to the G.O.P. nomination and eventual presidential victory gave heft to the idea that extreme candidates can beat moderates by galvanizing their party’s base. That premise is shaping competitive races in both parties. But an analysis of more than 30 years of House general elections suggests […] Read more »
GOP primaries gauge the anti-establishment fervor Trump helped unleash
Republican primary voters in West Virginia and Indiana are set to shape the future of Donald Trump’s anti-establishment political revolt on Tuesday, while testing the president’s own ability to steer the passions he helped unleash. … “That dynamic that elected Donald Trump that I thought was going to dissipate after […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: Primary Season Gets Into Full Swing
Tuesday marks the first big primary election day of the 2018 midterms, with contests in West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and North Carolina. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team breaks down which primaries are the most important to watch and what they could mean for the midterms this fall. The crew also […] Read more »
What’s At Stake In The First Big Primary Day Of 2018
Will a new political dynasty be born? Will a man not quite a year removed from prison become the GOP’s candidate for Senate? Will Dennis Kucinich finally win a nomination — 14 years after his first quixotic presidential bid? These things could all happen Tuesday, primary day in the great […] Read more »
Can Donald Trump continue to defy political gravity?
The political future of President Donald Trump and the Republican Party over the next two years really comes down to one question: Do traditional measures of popularity mean anything when it comes to Trump? If they do, the Republican Party and Trump could be in major trouble. CONT. Harry Enten, […] Read more »
An Urgent Debate for California Republicans: How to Get Back in the Game
For anyone wondering about the state of the Republican Party in California these days, consider this: There may be no Republican candidate for governor or United States senator on the state’s ballot this November. That dispiriting possibility is beginning to sink in for California Republicans, against the backdrop of a […] Read more »