Key Points• To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September.• Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become a huge focus for Republicans, […] Read more »
Arizona: Mark Kelly has edge in Senate race that hinges on abortion, economy, immigration
Arizona is another battleground where strong opposing forces underpin the race. Democratic candidates enjoy stronger personal ratings, while Republican voters are thinking more about national Senate control. There’s a tough economy and desire for tougher border controls helping Republicans, versus abortion helping Democrats. And in this state that was so […] Read more »
Pennsylvania: Common Touch Key to Senate Race
Democrat John Fetterman is seen as understanding the concerns of ordinary Pennsylvanians more than Republican Mehmet Oz, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll of the U.S. Senate race. Fetterman maintains an overall advantage on being trusted more to handle key issues, including those prioritized by independents and Republicans. Fetterman […] Read more »
Midterm polls swing back to the right
Over the past few months, Democrats have enjoyed an unexpected feeling of optimism, as polling has shown their party unexpectedly competitive in House and Senate races. Maybe, despite the political gravity tugging their party down, they might be able to hold the Senate? Maybe both chambers? In less-realistic iterations, that […] Read more »
Republicans hold a near-historic lead on a key midterm indicator
… We’re all used to polls that ask voters which issue is most important to them. Gallup puts the question to Americans open-ended, meaning a respondent can say anything from the mundane (e.g. inflation) to the inane (e.g. clowns). Gallup, unlike other pollsters, has another twist on that question. They […] Read more »
The disapproval derby: Biden Democrats vs. Supreme Court Republicans
What makes this midterm election different from every other? Most midterms are about the party in charge. But in this one, two parties count as incumbents: the Democrats who control the White House and Congress, and the Republicans who control the Supreme Court. GOP pollster Whit Ayres called my attention […] Read more »