It’s still true that Democrats are far more likely than not to capture a majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2010, but their margin for error may be less than it was six months or even one month ago. The micro-political, race-by-race picture has improved […] Read more »
Congressional Candidates, Not Mueller, Could Decide Trump’s Future
For months, the political world has treated Robert S. Mueller III as the arbiter of President Trump’s fate: Hopeful Democrats have theorized about the damage Mr. Mueller’s investigation might inflict. Suspicious Republicans, led by Mr. Trump, have cast him as leading a “witch hunt.” But this week Rudolph W. Giuliani, […] Read more »
What Do We Know With Just Under Six Months to Go
Given the warped time-space continuum in which those of us in DC live – a flood of news, tweets, and leaks makes each day feel like a week – it may be hard to comprehend ‘real’ time. So, let me help out. We are less than six months – 173 […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Online Best Behavior
The 73rd annual conference of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) is underway in Denver, Colorado. In this episode of Poll Hub, special guest Randy Brown joined us from the conference to discuss the focus of his latest research. Brown, Vice President of Edison Research, explained how Edison’s […] Read more »
Sex and religion were the biggest influences on #NeverTrump Republicans
… In a recent work, we explored the question “‘why did Republican lawmakers oppose Trump’s candidacy in the 2016 campaign?” There are diverse—and often contradictory—explanations of the #NeverTrump movement offered by politicians, pundits, and journalists in 2016. After cataloguing these explanations, we distilled them into four theoretical categories: (1) policy […] Read more »
The Republican Party’s Generational Bet
Representative Martha McSally, the establishment favorite for the Republican Senate nomination in Arizona, took the unusual step this week of removing her name as a co-sponsor of legislation to provide a path to citizenship for the so-called “Dreamers,” young people brought to the U.S. illegally by their parents. … McSally’s […] Read more »