House analysts know that handicapping results in individual seats can be tricky for a lot of reasons, including the lack of independent polling in most districts. Yes, the party committees, campaigns, and other outside groups will survey the districts, but many of these polls will never see the light of […] Read more »
What Are They Hiding?
The Special Counsel Investigation: Americans want the investigation to continue, but are more interested in indictments and crimes than in rehashing 2016. For many Americans, the cover up is the crime. When we ask Americans what this investigation is about, they say it’s about Russian interference and collusion rather than […] Read more »
The Effects of the Early Trump Presidency on Public Attitudes Toward the Republican Party
Presidents from Truman through Obama have influenced their party’s popularity, reputation for competence, presumed policy commitments, appeal as an object of identification, and electoral performance. Despite Donald Trump’s singularly unorthodox campaign and early presidency, survey data available for his first 15 months in office suggest that opinions of his performance […] Read more »
For Democrats, 2018 Is the Year of the Woman…and 2020 Too?
… During the rare breaks in the Trump-generated action, media attention has occasionally focused on what has appeared to be a surge in political participation by women, from the well-attended Women’s March of January 2017 to reports of an increase in female campaign donors to studies indicating a rise in […] Read more »
California: New poll finds a volatile race for second place in governor’s contest
The fight for second place in California’s governor’s race between Republican John Cox and Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa remains unpredictable and volatile as the June 5 primary approaches, according to a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom led both by 10 percentage points or more, validating every […] Read more »
3 Ways Nancy Pelosi Won’t Be Speaker Next Year
Nancy Pelosi is a drug that Republicans just can’t quit, and the GOP hopes that the threat of her becoming speaker of the House again will awaken any potentially apathetic base voters. While that might work for Republicans for yet another cycle, it might be the last cycle with their […] Read more »