Most analysis has framed this year’s multitude of Democratic primaries as struggles for the soul of the party between moderate, “handpicked DC” candidates and left-wing “insurgents” in the Bernie Sanders mold. On May 15, former Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford (NE-02) was upset by pro-single-payer non-profit executive Kara Eastman. This week, […] Read more »
Recent special elections suggest Democrats may not ride a wave in November
Democrats have taken a tumble on the generic congressional ballot over the last few months. Their advantage in an average of the last five live interview polls is just under 7 percentage points, and it’s even lower when you consider other polls. The Democrats, though, have been taking solace in […] Read more »
Introducing our prediction model for America’s mid-term elections
ON NOVEMBER 6th 2018 the United States will hold elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Congress. These are contested every two years, both alongside the presidential race and in mid-term elections. … The Economist has developed a statistical model for the House, […] Read more »
Poll Hub: A Wave or a Ripple?
With five months to go until the congressional midterm elections, debate exists about whether or not the Democrats will create a blue wave. In this week’s Poll Hub, a look at the perceived schism within the Democratic Party. Are progressive candidates better positioned than moderate candidates to take on Republicans […] Read more »
Has the Blue Wave Already Crested?
Marginal improvement in President Trump’s job approval ratings and a shrinking Democratic advantage on the national generic ballot has spooked a lot of Democrats and cheered up a lot of Republicans. What once looked like a huge tsunami that threatened to demolish the GOP in the House (and maybe in […] Read more »
California: Cutting Through the Fog of Polls
At a time when polling in California is more muddled and uncertain than ever, there’s only one important known unknown in campaigns for statewide office following the two most recent public surveys: Who will come in second in the governor’s race in the prelim June 5 election? CONT. Calbuzz Read more »