… The poll of the week: A new Franklin and Marshall poll that puts Democratic Sen. Bob Casey ahead of his Republican opponent Lou Barletta 44% to 27%. It’s the latest poll that has Casey with a double-digit lead over Barletta. … Barletta’s campaign put some interesting spin on the […] Read more »
About 1 in 5 Approve of Congress
Slightly fewer than one in five Americans (19%) in June approve of the job Congress is doing, on par with the 17% who approved of the legislative branch’s job performance last month and the 18% who approved in April. Seventy-six percent of Americans disapprove. CONT. Andrew Dugan, Gallup Read more »
Poll Hub: They’re at It, Again!
Perhaps, the great Yogi Berra said it best — It’s deja vu all over again! The lack of distinction between public opinion polls and forecasters in 2016 created a false aura of inevitability around Hillary Clinton. Two years later, pollsters witness emerging, untested polling methods that run the risk of […] Read more »
What Happened in the June 12 Primary
In one way, Maine offered the most interesting results of the night, and not only because of who appears to have won some of the party nominations for governor and Congress. The Pine Tree State became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as […] Read more »
Two Ways of Thinking About Election Predictions and What They Tell Us About 2018
To understand the differences between quantitative, data-driven predictions and those made from traditional, data-influenced handicapping, one should direct their attention to the names of two websites: Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and my blog, The Crosstab. One is a reference to the soothsayer, a […] Read more »
Republicans Absorb New Lesson: Cross President Trump at Their Peril
President Trump wasn’t on the ballot or even stateside for Tuesday’s primary elections in Virginia and South Carolina. But he loomed over both states, just as he has in nearly every nominating contest this year, underscoring how the Republican Party has become the party of Trump and that its politicians […] Read more »