Count the House races, and you’ll get a pretty good idea of whether the House will flip in the fall. No, you can’t be entirely certain how an individual toss-up contest is going to turn out in November. But you can arrive at a ballpark assessment of House changes right […] Read more »
Trump’s first midterm pits a booming economy against one of history’s most unpopular presidents
The midterm election now just over eight weeks away is shaping up as a seismic collision between two powerful and competing forces, a rip-roaring national economy and a deeply polarizing and unpopular president. At stake on Nov. 6 is not just control of Congress but the fate of President Trump […] Read more »
Senate 2018: At Least for Now, the Elephant Endures
With Labor Day in the rearview mirror, the race to Election Day is on. The national picture remains favorable to Democrats, but because of the Senate playing field, the Republican majority still will be difficult for Democrats to dislodge even in an optimal environment. One oddity as we reach the […] Read more »
Gallup podcast: McCain, Mueller, midterms and more
President Donald Trump often refers to polls, but just how accurate are his tweets about them? What will have a larger effect on midterm election outcomes — presidential approval or economic confidence? How many Democrats react positively when they hear the word “socialism”? Frank Newport and Gallup Senior Editor Lydia […] Read more »
NBC/Marist poll: Democrat Joe Donnelly has slight edge in Indiana Senate race
Democratic Senate incumbent Joe Donnelly has a slight advantage over Republican challenger Mike Braun in Indiana’s closely-watched Senate contest, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll. … Donnelly, a low-key freshman senator in a state that voted for President Donald Trump by nearly 20 points, has long been considered one […] Read more »
Why red and blue states divide over green policy
President Donald Trump’s drive to rescind the federal efforts to combat global climate change is highlighting another chasm between Republican- and Democratic-leaning states. … In the presidential Electoral College and the Senate, Republicans rely overwhelmingly on the states most tightly bound to the fossil fuel economy — as producers, consumers […] Read more »