For over six months this column has suggested that this election amounts to a Democratic tidal wave crashing against a Republican seawall—the question is which will be stronger. At Labor Day, the traditional beginning of the general-election-campaign season, that continues to be the case, though how that dynamic manifests itself […] Read more »
Democrats could give Kavanaugh the Bork treatment, and he’d probably still be confirmed
Judge Brett Kavanaugh is one of the least popular Supreme Court nominees of all time. But as long as his popularity ratings don’t drop dramatically, he’s likely to get confirmed. Recent polling shows that Americans are split on whether Kavanaugh should be confirmed. The most recent Gallup poll found 40% […] Read more »
Less than 1 in 5 trust Trump to tell the truth
A national USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll finds voters are more likely to back Democrats in their district’s election for the United States House of Representatives, giving Democrats an 8 percentage point advantage over Republicans. … Just under 20 percent of the public nationwide considers Trump as a source of […] Read more »
Why Did We Do the Poll the Way We Did?
How did we decide whom to call, and where did we get their numbers? Our poll started with the voter file, a data set of nearly every registered voter in the country. We call voters off this list, which makes our poll a “registration-based sample.” Not every pollster does this. […] Read more »
NBC/Marist poll: It’s a neck-and-neck Senate race in Tennessee
Democrat Phil Bredesen and Republican Marsha Blackburn are running neck and neck in Tennessee’s Senate contest, despite the state’s deep-red hue, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of Tennessee. Bredesen, the state’s former governor, gets support from 48 percent of likely voters, while Blackburn, who is a current member […] Read more »
Live From the Battleground Districts: Polls of the Key Races for House Control
Over the next two months, The New York Times will talk to more voters than ever before. It starts this afternoon, when we’ll publish the first New York Times Upshot/Siena College polls of the most competitive battlegrounds in the fight for Congress. But there’s a twist. None of these polls […] Read more »