The 2018 campaign (mostly) comes to an end today. If the polls and our forecasts are right, the Democrats and Republicans will each have something to be happy about. Democrats are favored to take back the House, while Republicans are favored to maintain control of the Senate. Our final House […] Read more »
The two Americas are on a collision course today
Two Americas could render diametrically opposed verdicts on President Donald Trump’s tumultuous first two years in today’s election. From one direction, Trump faces intense antipathy among young people and minority voters and unusually broad resistance among college-educated white voters, especially women. That threatens Republicans with widespread losses in well-educated, often […] Read more »
Our Final Forecast In The Senate, House And Gubernatorial Races
Happy Election Day! The last of the polls are in, and it’s finally pencils down for FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 midterm forecast. Here are our final forecasts: CONT. Nathaniel Rakich, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Surprising Support for the Term ‘Feminist’ on the Campaign Trail
Asked whether she was a feminist, Amy McGrath, the former Marine fighter pilot running for Congress in Kentucky, was emphatic: “Hell yeah, I’m a feminist.” Her opponent, Representative Andy Barr, turned her words into an attack ad. Many politicians have considered the word “feminist” toxic. But that might be changing. […] Read more »
Why on-the-fence voters say they are supporting Democrats or Republicans for Congress
Americans faced an onslaught of polling numbers this fall — which we warned you about — but with Election Day upon us, let’s take one final look at voters’ explanations for their congressional vote choices in their own words, particularly those who were on the fence in the final week […] Read more »
Half of registered voters believe their own member of Congress deserves re-election
Half of registered voters heading into Tuesday’s midterm elections believe their own member of Congress deserves re-election, by one percentage point the lowest Gallup has recorded in its final pre-election poll over the past seven midterm elections. Just 29% of voters say most members deserve re-election. The latter indicator of […] Read more »