The 2018 midterm elections, for Republicans, is a story of missed opportunity. Holding the House was a tall order with history against the GOP as the party in power and the large number of Republican retirements But a path to preserving their House majority, even if a difficult one, did […] Read more »
How FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 Midterm Forecasts Did
… Polls and forecasts, including FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, were highly accurate and did about as well as you could expect. So let’s go through how our forecast, in particular, performed: I’ll brag about what it got right, along with suggesting some areas where — despite our good top-line numbers — there’s […] Read more »
Trump’s alienation of younger voters is a generational gamble for GOP
The sharp turn against the Republican Party by young people in the 2018 election may be only the overture to an even greater political risk for the GOP in 2020. Both historical voting patterns and underlying demographic trends suggest that the biggest difference in the electorate between this election and […] Read more »
Public Tells House Dems — Don’t Waste Time Investigating Trump: IBD/TIPP Poll
The public wants the new Congress to focus on three areas when it convenes next year: health care costs, immigration, and jobs. Few, however, want the Democratically controlled House to make investigating the Trump White House a priority. That’s the finding of the latest IBD/TIPP poll. The poll also found […] Read more »
A Split Decision in a Divided Nation
What the 2018 Midterms Mean for Succeeding in Washington CONT. – pdf Bruce Mehlman, Mehlman Castagnetti Read more »
Two More Thoughts about the NC 9th CD Situation
The North Carolina 9th congressional district controversy is an interesting case of how the data-rich environment of North Carolina elections allows election geeks to explore in great detail the dynamics of an election, using the incomparable North Carolina Board of Elections data website. In particular, Nathaniel Rakich at FiveThirtyEight and […] Read more »