Joe Biden, the current front-runner among those running for the Democratic presidential nomination, brings an unusual quality to his candidacy: 44 years of service as an elected official at the federal level. … What are the implications of Biden’s extraordinary experience for his presidential campaign? Can Biden thread the needle […] Read more »
A Strategy Emerges to Counter House Democrats: Dare Them to Impeach
As the White House and Congress escalate their constitutional showdown, President Trump and his team are essentially trying to call what they see as the Democrats’ bluff. The message: Put up or shut up. Impeach or move on. Confident that there are not enough votes to remove him from office […] Read more »
Changes in Awareness of and Support for the Green New Deal: December 2018 to April 2019
From December 2018 to April 2019, public familiarity with – and support for – the Green New Deal shifted dramatically. In particular, Republicans now say they are both much more familiar with the proposal and much more opposed to it. Opposition to the Green New Deal is especially strong among […] Read more »
The Democrats’ Coalition Could Fundamentally Change by 2020
Though they’ve attracted little attention, recent public polls have sent clear warning signals that the ambitious agenda of the rejuvenated Democratic left could strain the coalition that carried the party to its sweeping gains in the 2018 election. Recent surveys show that such prized progressive ideas as a government-run single-payer […] Read more »
Notes on the State of the House
Let’s start here with a caveat: House generic ballot polling from a year and a half before a general election should not be treated as predictive. The 2020 House election depends on a lot of factors that remain unknowable, most importantly the tone-setting effect of the presidential race, which at […] Read more »
Trump’s economy is booming, and Democrats can’t handle it
… As a Republican, one can only hope that the media is beginning to acknowledge that there’s hyperbole and then there’s downright disinformation when it comes to the tax law. But on May 3, the jobs report changed the political calculus. Democrats seemed to suddenly show symptoms of a kind […] Read more »