Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide When We Reopen

All but a dozen states are in some phase of reopening from COVID-19 related shutdowns, and forecasts of the pandemic’s toll in the U.S. have correspondingly increased death projections due to the virus. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether there is an overarching plan […] Read more »

Senate battleground map shifts during pandemic response

The 2020 election is now less than six months away and in recent weeks the battle for the U.S. Senate seems to have tilted in the Democrats’ favor, according to polls and campaign analysts. The numbers suggest that, as Washington and the states weigh various responses to the coronavirus, Republican […] Read more »

Tracking The Pandemic In The Battleground: Wave 2

The Tea Party-Trump Republican Party was forced to lead the country’s response to the pandemic and that accelerated the polarization of the country and marginalization of the GOP — at a very high human cost. Donald Trump took leadership of a modern Republican Party shaped profoundly by the Tea Party […] Read more »

The coronavirus election

Before anyone ever heard of COVID-19, America was going through the final stages of a political realignment. Then the coronavirus set into motion a tectonic shift, transforming the country in ways none of us could have imagined. The costs of the pandemic to our society are incalculable. But one thing […] Read more »

Why Trump’s shadow over the race for Senate control is so long

… Senate elections are becoming more about the party and less about the individual candidates. It’s become harder and harder for even the most talented Senate candidates to win, in effect, behind enemy lines, in states that usually vote the other way in presidential races. … The hardening alignment between […] Read more »