President Trump’s abysmal polling since the pandemic began is seriously jeopardizing down-ballot GOP fortunes. We may be approaching the point at which dozens of House Republicans will need to decide whether to cut the president loose and run on a “check and balance” message, offering voters insurance against congressional Democrats […] Read more »
The Future Shape of the Senate
Key Points• The Constitution divides the Senate into three “classes” that face the voters on six-year cycles. Under today’s political dynamics, the class that faced the voters in 2018 was favorable to the Republicans, while the class that faces the voters in 2020 is favorable to the Democrats.• What about […] Read more »
Biden opens up 11-point national lead over Trump in NBC News/WSJ poll
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a double-digit lead nationally over President Donald Trump, with 7 in 10 voters saying the country is on the wrong track, and majorities disapproving of the president’s handling of the coronavirus and race relations. … The NBC News/WSJ poll also shows a whopping […] Read more »
The Electoral College: The Fringe of the Map Expands
Key Points• President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half.• With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight to 10 points, there is a possibility that he could compete for some usually Republican states.• We are moving seven states from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.• Our […] Read more »
How the coronavirus is shaping health care politics in 2020
The coronavirus outbreak is now burning primarily through states with the highest share of uninsured residents, complicating the local response and amplifying the political debate over the future of the Affordable Care Act. Caseloads are exploding in many of the 13 remaining states where Republican governors, legislators or both have […] Read more »
The Great Acceleration: How 2020’s Crises Are Bringing the Future Faster
Political prognostication, by Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. CONT. — pdf Read more »