With President Donald Trump’s initial lead dissipating in Georgia, GOP Sen. David Perdue looks increasingly likely to be forced into a January runoff against Democrat Jon Ossoff. Perdue’s share of the vote is close to dipping below 50 percent, which would trigger Georgia’s unique runoff law. … If Perdue finishes […] Read more »
It’s too early to trash the polls
After Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, the 2020 election became a referendum on both Trump’s first term and the pollsters and forecasters who appeared to underestimate his chances four years ago. That first question hasn’t yet been settled. But many were quick to declare a verdict on the second. […] Read more »
Post-Election National Survey
Public Opinion Strategies completed N=1600 interviews last night with 2020 voters. There is a lot more to learn and say about this election, but, here are five initial key takeaways from this work: CONT. Public Opinion Strategies The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and […] Read more »
House Republicans Defy the Polls, Narrow Democrats’ Majority
District-level polling has rarely led us — or the parties and groups investing in House races — so astray. Prior to Tuesday, most Republican strategists were privately resigned to the prospect of a double-digit loss of seats. At this writing, Republicans may be on track to pick up between five […] Read more »
Sifting Through the Results So Far
… Amidst the highest turnout in modern history, both Biden and President Donald Trump turned out their bases and battled in an epic duel that remains undecided. In our final pre-election assessment, we warned of the possibility that many polls could be missing a significant share of the Trump electorate, […] Read more »
12 contests to watch closely on Tuesday night
It’s Election Day in America, and there are actually 56 separate presidential elections taking place: The 50 states, Washington, DC, and individual congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska. So what should you be on the lookout for to know who is winning the election? Here is what I will be […] Read more »