… A plurality of Americans, including the vast majority of Asian, Black and Hispanic voters, backed the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. A slightly smaller bloc, including the majority of white Americans and the overwhelming majority of white evangelical Protestants, backed the Republican Party’s candidate. … In short, what made Tuesday […] Read more »
The Electoral College Is Close. The Popular Vote Isn’t.
As the presidential race inches agonizingly toward a conclusion, it might be easy to miss the fact that the results are not really close. With many ballots still left to count in heavily Democratic cities, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. was leading President Trump on Friday by more […] Read more »
The polling industry blows it again
The pollsters got Donald Trump wrong — again. When all the votes are tallied, Joe Biden isn’t going to win the popular vote by double digits. Trump lost Wisconsin by a point, not the 17-point defeat one survey suggested. And Trump obviously didn’t go down in an election night landslide, […] Read more »
Polls underestimated Trump’s support, but not by as much as you might think
As returns from quick-counting states like Florida and Texas flowed in Tuesday night, pollsters quickly became targets in America’s easily triggered political culture. With Democratic challenger Joe Biden running well behind poll-created expectations in those states, accusations of “collapse” and “disaster” peppered the nation’s pollsters. President Trump added to the […] Read more »
Even if Trump loses, the takeaway for some top Republicans is that embracing him worked
President Trump may well be on his way out of Washington, but you wouldn’t know it from the way top congressional Republicans are talking about him. There’s a sense in Republican circles that Trump being on the ballot actually lifted them to higher-than-expected success in House, Senate and statehouse races, […] Read more »
DCCC chairwoman Cheri Bustos ‘furious’ at polling misses
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Cheri Bustos told House Democrats on a Thursday caucus call that she was “furious” about polls that misread the political environment, as the party suffered unexpected losses in the House. “I also want to say the thing we’re all feeling: I’m furious. Something went wrong […] Read more »