House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy is hoping all’s well that ends well when it comes to becoming speaker of the chamber. The current minority leader and former majority leader may have thought he’d have the speakership locked up by now, but, ahead of the new Congress that begins on Tuesday, […] Read more »
The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative
… Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality. But they also conducted fewer polls than in the past. That paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that […] Read more »
Black support for GOP ticked up in this year’s midterms
Black voters have been a steady foundation for Democratic candidates for decades, but that support appeared to show a few cracks in this year’s elections. Republican candidates were backed by 14% of Black voters, compared with 8% in the last midterm elections four years ago, according to AP VoteCast, an […] Read more »
Since 2018, Republicans have lost confidence in U.S. institutions
In June and July 2018, we launched a U.S. survey that asked 5,400 Americans how much confidence they had in a series of national institutions, called the American Institutional Confidence (AIC) Poll. These included political, social and business institutions. … With these questions, we collected detailed demographic and background data […] Read more »
2022’s Most Unexpected Winners and Losers
Generally, we don’t like to endorse zero-sum views of the world, but it was hard to miss the seesaw effect at play across the political landscape of 2022. So we offer for your amusement (or annoyance, depending on your political priors) 11 sets of paired winners and losers — the […] Read more »
The most underdiscussed fact of the 2022 election: how historically close it was
… It’s not unusual for any one of these (governorships, House seats or Senate seats) to be narrowly split. After all, we’ve just had two years in which each party has held 50 Senate seats. What is unusual is to have all three be so closely divided. By my count, […] Read more »