Politics isn’t all that complicated. It’s really just math. But, as those of us who were never big fans of the subject in school can attest, sometimes math can be hard. As I write this on Thursday, the most prominent political figure in America, Republican Kevin McCarthy, has a very […] Read more »
The Political Profile of McCarthy’s Detractors
Key Points• This article is being published following the adjournment of the House on the afternoon of Wednesday, Jan. 4 after the body failed to elect a speaker on 6 roll call votes held Tuesday and Wednesday. The House was scheduled to return at 8 p.m. eastern on Wednesday.• The […] Read more »
A Thermostatic Model of Congressional Elections
Congressional elections often are considered a referendum on presidents. Popular presidential candidates produce coattails in presidential election years and can limit voters’ typical desires for partisan balancing in midterms. But the president’s party tends to lose congressional seats and vote share in midterms even with high popularity. We argue that […] Read more »
Which Senate candidates were strongest and weakest in 2022?
Measuring the strength and weakness of candidates is a time-honored tradition in political analysis. But too often it’s too subjective. An Inside Elections metric quantifies the electoral performance of candidates, making it easier to test conventional wisdom and prevailing political narratives. Did underwhelming nominees in key states torpedo GOP efforts […] Read more »
Why the right has already won the House speakership election
No matter how they resolve Tuesday’s vote choosing the next speaker of the House, Republicans appear poised to double down on the hard-edged politics that most swing state voters rejected in last November’s midterm election. Stubborn conservative resistance to House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy has put the party at risk […] Read more »
America’s True Divide: Pluralists vs. Zealots
The most important divide in American politics isn’t red versus blue. It’s civic pluralists versus political zealots. This is the truth no one in Washington acknowledges but Americans must realize if we’re going to recover. … The stupidity of tribalism has made politics primarily about partisan identities, not persuasion or […] Read more »