Most Republicans want former President Donald Trump to remain their party’s leader, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. But differing views about Trump’s role in the party — and his strength as a future presidential nominee — highlight divides within the GOP. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say, […] Read more »
Generic congressional ballot is tied for the first time since 2015
The generic congressional ballot is tied at 42% among a sample of N=800 registered voters in a survey conducted September 1st-September 8th with a margin of error of +3.46%. The last time the generic congressional ballot was tied was back in October 2015, also at 42%. The last time this […] Read more »
The Political Winds May Blow Through California and Virginia This Fall
With our federal races becoming increasingly more parliamentary—9 out of 10 voters simply cast either Democratic or Republican votes up and down the ballot—the direction and velocity of the national political winds are becoming increasingly important. So where do we stand today, on Labor Day, 14 months before the 2022 […] Read more »
Analysis of Polls Finds Majorities Support 28 Proposals in Budget Reconciliation Plan
In a comprehensive analysis of polls on major proposals in the proposed reconciliation budget—related to health care, the environment, education, safety net programs and more—all 28 receive majority support, in most cases large majorities. For all proposals, this includes majorities of Democrats and independents. Among Republicans, majorities support 14 of […] Read more »
How Republicans are set to boost Democratic turnout in 2022
Just as Democrats were starting to watch their chances of maintaining majorities in Congress get washed out to sea with President Joe Biden’s declining job approval ratings, Republicans have handed them at least one, and maybe two, life preservers for the 2022 elections. With the historical trend of midterms and […] Read more »
Redistricting in America, Part Eight: A Quick Summation of a Long Series
Key Points• Over the past several weeks, we’ve analyzed redistricting all over the country.• Overall, our House outlook remains unchanged after this analysis: There are a lot of reasons to like the Republicans’ chances of winning a majority next year.• All of our 44 full redistricting previews for each state […] Read more »