The latest IGS Poll shows incumbent officials with a wide lead in the upcoming statewide primary election contest. Governor Gavin Newsom has the support of 50% of likely voters, with his nearest competitor, Republican Brian Dahle, at 10%, and No Party Preference candidate Michael Shellenberger receiving 5% of the vote. […] Read more »
Even in a Great Year, Republicans’ Winnable Seats Are Limited
Just as it is rare for rivers to reverse their flow, in the last six months before a midterm election the clear direction of that campaign almost never reverses. Midterm elections are almost always referenda on the sitting president and governing party, with the cumulative impressions of how that president […] Read more »
The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis
Key Points• Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings.• Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization.• Based on the fundamentals of […] Read more »
Most people support abortion staying legal, but that may not matter in making law
Tarah Williams, Allegheny College The Supreme Court is set to soon rule on the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health case, nearly one month after a leaked draft majority opinion showed the court might uphold a Mississippi law that bans abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Ruling to uphold this ban […] Read more »
The two issues that could disrupt the 2022 elections
Momentous and tragic events are driving public attention back toward abortion rights and gun control, two issues that keyed the Democratic advance in well-educated suburbs over the past generation. And that could create the Democrats’ best chance of defending those gains in the stormy environment of the 2022 midterm elections. […] Read more »
Christian nationalism on the rise in some GOP campaigns
… Christian nationalism is emerging alongside and in some cases overlapping with other right-wing movements, such as the conspiratorial QAnon, white supremacy, and denialism over COVID-19 and the 2020 election. Christian prayers and symbols featured prominently in and around the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection there. … […] Read more »