ABC’s Jonathan Karl reports on FiveThirtyEight’s predictions for Iowa and New Hampshire on “This Week.” ABC News ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos Read more »
A divided country gets a divisive election
… In a polarized country, energizing the base of the party is a prerequisite to winning the nomination, if not the general election. More so than in some past campaigns, however, the effect of all this seems to be accentuating the gap between left and right, between Democrats and Republicans, […] Read more »
Jeb Bush’s Image Among Republicans Deteriorates
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s image among Republicans has steadily worsened over the past 5 ½ months. His current net favorable rating of -1 (44% favorable, 45% unfavorable) among Republicans is significantly lower than his +27 (54% favorable, 27% unfavorable) rating in mid-July. CONT. Frank Newport, Gallup Read more »
Trump Leads, But When It Comes To Second Choice, Cruz Is On Top
While the media has been largely consumed by examining the GOP front-runner, asking about second choices is the key to understanding how the race will likely develop once candidates drop in viability or drop out altogether. In other words, who stands to topple Donald Trump once the field narrows? CONT. […] Read more »
Trump, Cruz, and a Cage Fight
… One way of looking at the GOP nomination fight is to think of three lanes or brackets: a populist lane—obviously dominated by Trump—a conservative lane, and a conventional/moderate lane (the libertarian lane that Rand Paul was banking on failed to emerge). CONT. Charlie Cook Read more »
One year, two races: Inside the Republican Party’s bizarre, tumultuous 2015
The year 2015 will be remembered as one of the most bizarrely compelling and yet genuinely unnerving in the nation’s modern political history. It is clear now that there were two halves to the year for the Republican Party: BT and AT, Before Trump and After Trump. From January to […] Read more »