Democrats crushed Republicans in Tuesday’s California recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom. Newsom’s overwhelming victory left little doubt that California is a deeply blue state, and a Donald Trump-endorsed candidate like Larry Elder doesn’t come close to fitting the bill for the type of Republican the GOP needs to run […] Read more »
California: Newsom holds big early leads in next year’s gubernatorial election
… In its latest statewide survey, the Berkeley IGS Poll asked a cross-section of the state’s registered voters their preferences for governor next year, by pairing Newsom against each of four prominent Republicans who were candidates on this year’s recall election’s replacement ballot. This included broadcaster Larry Elder, former San […] Read more »
Why a Troubled Polling Industry Whiffed on the California Recall
The political arm of the public-opinion industry famously had a tough election cycle in 2020. Nobody much noticed when polls of primaries went awry after the COVID pandemic struck; we were in unchartered territory when it came to understanding the likelihood to vote or even how to contact voters. But […] Read more »
Notes on the State of Politics: California and Indiana
It is going to take a while to get the final results in the California gubernatorial recall. But we know enough to say that the race was not at all close, and that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) should not have any trouble winning a second term next year. So as […] Read more »
What the exit polling tells us about the California electorate, and why it might be wrong
The only exit poll from California’s recall election showed Mr. Newsom winning with an unusual coalition. In a departure from nearly every recent election, longstanding racial and ethnic divides between white voters and voters of color seemed to vanish. … But the actual results of the recall election tell a […] Read more »
The California Recall Was a Warning
Governor Gavin Newsom of California defeated yesterday’s recall election by a large enough margin to squash earlier Republican threats to challenge the results no matter the outcome. But the proliferation of those allegations of voter fraud before the election, including ungrounded claims from former President Donald Trump that the contest […] Read more »