Republicans need a historic polling miss to win the California recall

The 2021 California gubernatorial recall election is in the final stretch, and there is a clear trend in the data. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s position (i.e. the “no” option on the recall) is strengthening significantly. While there are a few gubernatorial elections featuring a polling error as large as Newsom’s […] Read more »

The Political Winds May Blow Through California and Virginia This Fall

With our federal races becoming increasingly more parliamentary—9 out of 10 voters simply cast either Democratic or Republican votes up and down the ballot—the direction and velocity of the national political winds are becoming increasingly important. So where do we stand today, on Labor Day, 14 months before the 2022 […] Read more »

California: Newsom’s chances of surviving recall are greatly improved, Elder holds big lead in replacement election

The tide of likely voter preferences in this year’s gubernatorial recall election has turned. The latest Berkeley IGS Poll, completed earlier this week among a sample of nearly 10,000 registered voters across California, finds just 38.5% of those most likely to participate in the recall election now intending to vote […] Read more »