Trump thought war with Iran could help reelect Obama. What about Trump?

The president who once mused about a president attacking Iran to win reelection has now inched closer to war with Iran — in his own reelection year. But if President Trump truly thinks a new war in the Middle East might help him win, he might want to think again. […] Read more »

The Clinton Legacy: Impeachment Hurts the President

Conventional wisdom holds that the Republican Party suffered a big political penalty for impeaching Bill Clinton in 1998. But that’s not quite right. Republicans paid a modest, short-term penalty, while the costs to the Democratic Party appear to have been larger and longer-lasting. … Two decades ago, the Republicans’ decision […] Read more »

Why comparing Trump’s approval with past presidents doesn’t tell us much about 2020

Earlier this week, President Trump announced proudly to the world (via Twitter, of course) that his approval rating had hit 53 percent. If that number surprises you, it should. It’s from a notoriously Trump-friendly pollster that only reflects people it determines are “likely voters” — and which currently shows only […] Read more »

U.S. military confrontation with Iran would be unpopular. Here’s why.

Earlier this summer, after Iran downed an unmanned U.S. military aircraft, President Trump said he had approved — then put a stop to — a U.S. missile strike on Iran. Polling showed most Americans supported aborting the mission. … This unpopularity of intervening in Iran fits with larger public opinion […] Read more »

Blue Texas is a Democratic dream. Shifting left is a reality.

For three years now, Texas Republicans have been taking on water. … Now Democrats are crossing their fingers about finally turning Texas blue, or at least purple, in 2020. Turning Texas blue in the medium-term isn’t a pipe dream — the Trump-era GOP doesn’t play as well as the George […] Read more »