In general, the Republican Party gets between 5 and 10 percent of the Black vote and less than a third of the Hispanic vote nationally. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Clare Malone discusses the series of choices the GOP made, spanning decades, that made it an overwhelmingly […] Read more »
Does Partisanship Affect Compliance with Government Recommendations?
… I examine three cases of government vaccine recommendations – Smallpox in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, and measles in 2015. In the first case, the president, George W. Bush, was a Republican. In the latter two, the country was governed by a Democratic administration. Using survey data, I test whether […] Read more »
Reputations of leaders in crises
Leaders frequently forge their reputations in crises. In normal times, competition for the public’s attention is fierce. Crises, by contrast, put leaders at the center of our focus. Almost every eye is firmly fixed on them. … In the midst of World War II, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s approval […] Read more »
America was unprepared for a major crisis. Again.
President Trump downplayed the coronavirus threat, was slow to move and has delivered mixed messages to the nation. The federal bureaucracy bungled rapid production of tests for the virus. Stockpiles of crucial medical materials were limited and supply lines cumbersome. States and hospitals were plunged into life-and-death competition with one […] Read more »
Trump’s Approval Hits New High, But A Rally-Around-The-Flag Effect Is Small
Asked if he has any regrets about the way he’s handled the coronavirus crisis so far, President Trump said no — and he cited polling to back him up. “No, I think that we’ve handled it really well,” Trump said on Monday. “The American public thinks that we’ve handled it […] Read more »
Will Coronavirus Shake Up the Political Stasis?
The one constant in these last three and a half years has been chaos. Almost every week, there is an event, issue or moment that looks as if it may upend our current political stasis or rattle the economy. But so far, nothing, not a government shutdown, nor impeachment, nor […] Read more »