The last time an incumbent president lost reelection — George H.W. Bush, in 1992 — an “it’s the economy, stupid” campaign theme took him down. Unemployment then was hovering around 7.5%. In the calamitous spring of 2020, that sounds like a long-lost boomtime. The Labor Department last week reported unemployment […] Read more »
Trump’s likeability deficit could cost him in 2020
President Donald Trump has a likeability problem. Four years ago, Trump won election with the lowest favorability for a major party presidential candidate in the polling era. He did so because he won the overwhelming plurality of voters who both disliked Hillary Clinton, the second least liked candidate of all […] Read more »
Trump’s Approval Hits New High, But A Rally-Around-The-Flag Effect Is Small
Asked if he has any regrets about the way he’s handled the coronavirus crisis so far, President Trump said no — and he cited polling to back him up. “No, I think that we’ve handled it really well,” Trump said on Monday. “The American public thinks that we’ve handled it […] Read more »
Impeachment From the American Public’s Perspective
The U.S. Senate is now in the middle of the third impeachment trial in American history — an excellent time to review what we know about public opinion on these historic proceedings. We didn’t have public opinion polling as we now know it in 1868 when Andrew Johnson was in […] Read more »
As Senate Trial Begins, 44% Approve of Trump
As the Senate impeachment trial of President Donald Trump begins, 44% of Americans approve of the job he is doing as president. Trump’s approval rating has been steady in the past three polls — between 43% and 45% — slightly above the 39% to 41% ratings he received as the […] Read more »
Presidents used to get an approval rating bump after military strikes. Here’s why Trump likely won’t.
Presidents have historically seen a bump in their approval ratings during a military crisis, but the partisanship that has gripped the country in recent years has stunted that traditional bump in the polls. That evidence suggests President Donald Trump’s approval rating — which has lingered in the lower to mid […] Read more »