Sometimes, when a news story is still unfolding in real time, we can’t do much better than to hazard a guess about how it will affect the polls. Of course, we can also not hazard a guess — that is, not say anything about it at all. But given that […] Read more »
Elizabeth Warren is rising everywhere
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign is, to quote NBA Jam, “on fire”. The latest Quinnipiac University national poll out today has Warren at 27% to former Vice President Joe Biden’s 25%. Now, one poll doesn’t mean much, and Quinnipiac’s result is well within the margin of error, so there’s […] Read more »
Why public support for impeachment may grow
During the course of President Donald Trump’s administration, a minority of Americans have been for impeaching him. Just this past May, CNN found that 41% of Americans wanted to impeach and remove the President from office. But as House Democrats launch a formal impeachment inquiry into the President, that percentage […] Read more »
What Polling Can Tell Us About Impeachment (and What It Can’t)
A majority of Americans have long opposed impeaching President Trump. Whether that will change, and what happens if it doesn’t, are some of many factors that will shape the political consequences for both parties. The risk to Democrats had been straightforward: With impeachment so unpopular, pursuing it would turn the […] Read more »
Why Pelosi Announced An Impeachment Inquiry
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew discusses House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision to formally launch an inquiry into whether President Trump should be impeached. How did Democrats get to this point, and what might come next? FiveThirtyEight Read more »
The America That Isn’t Polarized
… Americans are living through an unusual political moment. Their political institutions are the most divided they’ve been since the period after the Civil War, according to some political science research. But how divided are Americans themselves? By some measures, around half of the population is either disengaged or has […] Read more »