Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, at 24%, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, at 22%, are now the frontrunners in California’s March Democratic presidential primary. The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden dropping to third place, with 14% support, followed by South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at […] Read more »
The Democratic Race: Biden 2020 as Romney 2012
Key Points • Biden’s endurance at the top of the Democratic race is reminiscent of Mitt Romney’s endurance in the 2012 Republican race. • Despite considerable liabilities, Romney benefited — and Biden benefits — from splintered opposition and being the best fit for a significant bloc of party regulars. • […] Read more »
The key demographics of the Democratic Party are fragmenting
The continuing uncertainty in the Democratic presidential primary has a hole the size of Barack Obama at its center. One reason the race remains so unsettled is that none of the contenders has reassembled the winning coalition of groups that Obama coalesced during his 2008 run to the nomination, a […] Read more »
Is The Party Deciding?
With Thanksgiving behind us, it’s time to dive back into the two big political stories of the fall: the House impeachment inquiry and the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team gives an update on where public opinion stands on impeachment […] Read more »
The surprising second choices of Democratic primary voters upend political cliches
To many observers, the Democratic presidential primary has highlighted the “profound ideological divides between the Democratic Party’s moderate and progressive wings,” as an Associated Press article put it — two wings locked in a bitter fight for control. … Perhaps that’s how Democratic leaders and activists see the primary. But […] Read more »
How Black Voters Could Help Biden Win the Democratic Nomination
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. may lose the Iowa caucuses. But he is betting on strong support from black voters in Southern states and urban areas to help him accrue the 1,990 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. It might work. That’s because an overwhelming majority of delegates […] Read more »