3 Ways The Next 2 Weeks Could Go: Even The Best Case Scenario For Sanders Doesn’t Look So Great

Our primary model is now extremely confident that former Vice President Joe Biden will win a majority of pledged delegates. … If that confidence seems misplaced — and keep in mind, our forecasts are usually more conservative than other statistical algorithms — it may be because Biden’s ascent has been […] Read more »

Black turnout in primaries might make Democrats think twice about swing voter strategy

Voters fill out Super Tuesday ballots in North Carolina. Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images Todd Shaw, University of South Carolina Big wins for Joe Biden on Super Tuesday and in the South Carolina primary a few days earlier have seemingly bolstered a centrist view of how best to capture the presidency: […] Read more »

What the Polls Say About Today’s Primaries

Six states are holding Democratic primaries or caucuses on Tuesday: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington, worth a collective 352 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. There have been no recent polls by reputable organizations in North Dakota. Here is what the polls say about the other five […] Read more »

Danger Signs Abound for Sanders in Michigan — and Elsewhere

Key Points • Ahead of several delegate-rich contests this month, both national and state-level polls suggest that Joe Biden is solidifying his lead over Bernie Sanders.• Though a handful of states will be voting tomorrow, Michigan, given its significance in the 2016 primary, will be a focal point of the […] Read more »