Today, I thought I’d offer another lesson about why context is so important in political reporting and analysis — and how it can affect our view of the 2020 presidential contest. On April 8, NBC News ran a piece online, “Progressive Youth Groups Issue a List of Demands for Joe […] Read more »
Why Biden’s Polling Lead vs. Trump Isn’t as Solid as It Looks
President Trump and Joe Biden begin the general election campaign locked in a highly competitive contest that remains fought along the lines of the 2016 presidential election, according to national and battleground state polls. If anyone holds the early edge, it is Mr. Biden. He leads by an average of […] Read more »
How Coronavirus Will Blow Up the 2020 Campaign
The chaos around Wisconsin’s primary last week has raised the level of concern about November’s Election Day to Defcon-1 status. Will Republican legislators in key states block efforts to expand mail-in voting, and force people to stand in line together? Will we be clear enough of the virus for polling […] Read more »
The one normal thing about the 2020 campaign
… The 2016 campaign was known for having the two least liked major party candidates of all time. That seems unlikely to repeat itself. Indeed, while the 2020 campaign is likely to be one of the strangest campaigns in recent American history, the popularity of the two men who will […] Read more »
Battleground North Carolina: The Suburban Vote
I have been thinking a lot about North Carolina these days. While the former “Blue Wall” states get the lion’s share of coverage, North Carolina is actually the bigger bang for the buck. It is one of just two states — the other is Arizona — to have its presidential […] Read more »
Barack Obama wins the Democratic primary
In the end, the most influential politician of 2020 may be the one who has been the most silent. With Bernie Sanders exiting the race and Joe Biden taking on the mantle of presumptive nominee, the man who hovered quietly over the race for more than a year, Barack Obama, […] Read more »